Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a long and bloody conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action seemed. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of helping to shape a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”