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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, political observers suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.