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Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference hindered from the top if his administration led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to co-chair negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.