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Only 48 hours before the New York mayoral election, Michael Lange made a significant forecast – not just who would win overall, and block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, has spent over a decade in progressive politics and has become a kind of well-known figure this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win while failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. Lange has a flair for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would triumph by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your night?

I had to do that since they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the tally frequently! I felt a little nervous at the beginning: The candidate led the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but there were large groups of votes added later and his lead went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world in which election day went somewhat badly for him, where the opponent would have essentially increasing his support from the earlier contest. But the winner gained half a million votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, tenants and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president last year went for Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the election was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought we might exceed two million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Currently it appears he’s likely to get over half. He’s at 50.4% but there’s still around 200,000 votes left to report at that time. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I wish he does so then none can claim Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Including Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That truly surprised me. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these Republicans on the island with a strong turnout. I believe occurred significant tactical voting by the Republicans. This happened before the former president endorsed for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those areas of the boroughs?

I think existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for the independent. So there existed a little resistance. But overall, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran won – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on if Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. Plus, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, who were strongly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from progressives come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that every city in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in America – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities exist.